Friday, March 1, 2013

Logical Fallacy: Gambler's Fallacy

Gambler's Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is the idea that since something does not follow what is expected to occur, it must end soon. This fallacy comes from people having a false understanding of probability. When flipping a coin there is a 50% chance of landing on heads, and a 50% chance of landing on tails. Say that a coin was flipped 10 times and landed of heads each time, it seems more likely that in the next 10 flips the coin will land on tails. This, however, is false. When a coin is flipped it is not being affected by any of the flips before it; the chance is still 50/50.
Video with more on coin toss probablity: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lf4ZmWc_jmA


Appeal to Authority:


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